China’s population falls again in 2025, birthrate hits record low

China’s population fell for the fourth consecutive year in 2025 as the birthrate dropped to a record low, according to official data released Monday, with experts warning of further declines.

The country's population dropped by 3.39 million to 1.405 billion, a faster decline than 2024, while the total number of births dropped to 7.92 million in 2025, down 17% from 9.54 million in 2024. The number of deaths rose to 11.31 million from 10.93 million in 2024, figures from China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed, Reuters reported. 

China's birth rate dropped to 5.63 per 1,000 people.

Births in 2025 were "roughly the same level as in 1738, when China's population was only about 150 million," said Yi Fuxian, a demographer at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

China's death rate of 8.04 per 1,000 people in 2025 was the highest since 1968.

China's population has been shrinking since 2022 and is ageing rapidly, complicating Beijing's plan to boost domestic consumption and rein in debt.

The number of people aged over 60 years old reached around 23% of total population, the NBS data showed. By 2035 the number of over-60s is set to hit 400 million - roughly equal to the populations of the United States and Italy combined - meaning hundreds of millions of people are set to leave the workforce at a time when pension budgets are already stretched. China has already increased retirement ages, with men now expected to work until they are 63 rather than 60, and women until they are 58 rather than 55.

Marriages in China plunged by a fifth in 2024, the biggest drop on record, with more than 6.1 million couples registering for marriage, down from 7.68 million in 2023.

Marriages are typically a leading indicator for birth rates in China.

Demographers say a decision in May 2025 to allow couples to marry anywhere in the country rather than only their place of residence is likely to lead to a temporary boost to births.

Marriages rose 22.5% from a year earlier to 1.61 million in the third quarter of 2025, putting China on course to halt an almost decade-long annual decline in marriages. Full data for 2025 will be released later this year.

Authorities are also trying to promote "positive views on marriage and childbearing" as they try to undo the influence of the one-child policy that was in force from 1980 to 2015 helping to tackle poverty, but reshaping Chinese families and society.

Stabil.Az